Post Election Thoughts 3: Power Vacuum & the Future of the GOP

There is a serious leadership vacuum on the Right. The GOP has lost the Presidency and now has even weaker presences in the two houses of Congress and over the next two years, at least, they will have an extremely limited capacity to set the national agenda. Conventional wisdom seems to be pretty much established that the center of the Republican universe has shifted to the 23 governorships controlled by the party--especially stars Pawlenty (MN), Crist (FL), Jindal (LA) and, of course, Palin (AK) who are all well positioned for runs in 2012.

I certainly think that this will be true to some extent (especially during Obama's honeymoon) as the national GOP will be hesitant to oppose a popular president. Even when they do decide to fight back, there will be big limits to what they can actually accomplish in that opposition. I also think that it is the Republican Governors who are best positioned for 2012 given the consecutive rejections voters have delivered to the national party in '06 and '08--frankly, I thought it rather amazing that in a "change" election they managed to nominate someone who had spent the last several decades in Washington. Someone who is untainted by the Bush years with strong executive experience and is able to offer a fresh face on the Republican party is probably what they'll need to have a shot.

But I think that, as is often the case, the conventional wisdom is being too easily accepted here. There is nothing so hated by a politician as irrelevance and I have a hard time believing that Republican Representatives or (even more so)) Senators will allow themselves to be consigned to it for long. Certainly they will grant Obama some leeway, especially at first, but undoubtedly they will also find a number of specific proposals/appointments/etc where they feel sure of their footing in opposing him, even if he is very popular. And while their minority status in Congress will hamper their ability to actually prevent Democratic initiatives, it also frees them from the consequences of governing. For example, they can oppose the auto bailout on principle (as they are already doing), without having to worry about the 2.5 million Americans that would lose their jobs if one of the big 3 went under during a recession (yes, that number is correct). The national players in the party are already hard at work trying to find their way back to the essence of Reaganism (whatever that is) and into the limelight. And until sometime in 2011 when the national media start discussing the next presidential race, the recent Republican Governors Associate meeting is some of the last big coverage those folks are going to get for a while. When Obama makes some missteps (and he will just like all other Presidents), it will be Republicans on the Hill with national access and a drive to prove their conservative credentials to the base, rather than the Governors who are too busy trying to deal with multi-billion dollar budget deficits and the hassles of governing, who will be best positioned to take advantage of it.