Incendiary words out of an Israeli PM. Removal of settlers in Hebron recently led to vicious rioting and arbitrary violence directed at local Palestinian civilians. One wonders when the US will wake up to this--whatever the answer, I have little hope for Obama substantively changing the basic US/Israeli relationship.
The networks are now calling Alaska for Begich over the corrupt Stevens. The Dems have now gained 7 seats in the Senate during this election cylce and the caucus controls 58 seats (including Lieberman who for the moment is still with them). 2 races remain in process: Minnesota (in the throes of recount) and Georgia (preparing for a hurricane of a runoff election. This all certainly has the potential to get ugly; both sides in Minnesota have been raising the specter of Florida 2000 and there are lawyer armies assembled. With only about 200 votes less, Franken certainly has a decent chance to pick up that seat. In that case then both parties will gear up for a massive final push in Georgia in a race that would decide whether Democrats hit the magic 60 votes that it takes to invoke cloture and end filibusters. But, while each individual vote in the Senate is important, there has been some overemphasis on the exact number. After all, there several moderate or relatively liberal Republicans that can be picked off, especially while Obama is particularly popular (and it may be more likely for particular Senators depending on their stance on the issue at hand). As one commentator said: "60 is really more of a zone than a number."
There is a serious leadership vacuum on the Right. The GOP has lost the Presidency and now has even weaker presences in the two houses of Congress and over the next two years, at least, they will have an extremely limited capacity to set the national agenda. Conventional wisdom seems to be pretty much established that the center of the Republican universe has shifted to the 23 governorships controlled by the party--especially stars Pawlenty (MN), Crist (FL), Jindal (LA) and, of course, Palin (AK) who are all well positioned for runs in 2012.
I certainly think that this will be true to some extent (especially during Obama's honeymoon) as the national GOP will be hesitant to oppose a popular president. Even when they do decide to fight back, there will be big limits to what they can actually accomplish in that opposition. I also think that it is the Republican Governors who are best positioned for 2012 given the consecutive rejections voters have delivered to the national party in '06 and '08--frankly, I thought it rather amazing that in a "change" election they managed to nominate someone who had spent the last several decades in Washington. Someone who is untainted by the Bush years with strong executive experience and is able to offer a fresh face on the Republican party is probably what they'll need to have a shot.
But I think that, as is often the case, the conventional wisdom is being too easily accepted here. There is nothing so hated by a politician as irrelevance and I have a hard time believing that Republican Representatives or (even more so)) Senators will allow themselves to be consigned to it for long. Certainly they will grant Obama some leeway, especially at first, but undoubtedly they will also find a number of specific proposals/appointments/etc where they feel sure of their footing in opposing him, even if he is very popular. And while their minority status in Congress will hamper their ability to actually prevent Democratic initiatives, it also frees them from the consequences of governing. For example, they can oppose the auto bailout on principle (as they are already doing), without having to worry about the 2.5 million Americans that would lose their jobs if one of the big 3 went under during a recession (yes, that number is correct). The national players in the party are already hard at work trying to find their way back to the essence of Reaganism (whatever that is) and into the limelight. And until sometime in 2011 when the national media start discussing the next presidential race, the recent Republican Governors Associate meeting is some of the last big coverage those folks are going to get for a while. When Obama makes some missteps (and he will just like all other Presidents), it will be Republicans on the Hill with national access and a drive to prove their conservative credentials to the base, rather than the Governors who are too busy trying to deal with multi-billion dollar budget deficits and the hassles of governing, who will be best positioned to take advantage of it.
Digging into the election numbers there's some really interesting results...
First, the ground game in the battleground states:
% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns
State Obama McCain Gap
NV 50% 29% 21%
CO 51% 34% 17%
IN 37% 22% 15%
VA 50% 38% 12%
PA 50% 39% 11%
IA 41% 30% 11%
FL 29% 20% 9%
NC 34% 26% 8%
MO 44% 37% 7%
OH 43% 36% 7%
WI 42% 39% 3%
WV 29% 31% -2%
That's what you can do when your raise $600 million and have a hugely energized base. 538.com points out that in those states where Obama had a huge advantage in contact he also outperformed his pre-election polls (in particular in Indiana which was the one real "upset" of the elction)
Second, the demographic breakdown vs four years ago:
With a couple small exceptions, Obama outperformed the Kerry across the board.
Finally, as I was mentioning the electoral structural advantage of the Democrats right now, we have this:
Basically Obama could have done over 9% worse in every state and still won.
Thanks to 538.com for the stats
Begich (Democrat) now leads Stevens (Felon) by 814 votes as of the latest counts of absentee ballots. Still 30 to 40,000 votes to count.
Saturday update: after additional counting, the Begich lead is at 1022.
I'll be posting more on the election and the state of American politics as I'm still fully digesting the impacts of Nov 4th, but some thoughts to start...
Going forward the Republicans appear to be in a very tough spot. The central strategic electoral and political organizing principle of the GOP for the past four decades has been the Southern Strategy. For a long time it succeeded brilliantly. They have largely continued to execute, but the impact has been blunted. Electorally, the South no longer constitutes as large of an electoral bloc as it once did and the edges have been chipped away at with a black candidate winning North Carolina and the Old Dominion of VA (Georgia was even close this time). Demographically, the US continues to diversify with increasing percentages of "minorities" (in quotes because in some places whites are already a minority and before long they will be nationally). This is a party that had essentially an all-white convention in the Twin Cities and has made it abundantly clear over the years who they stand for. Without a serious reappraisal of their approach they run a very real risk of permanent minority status--not immediately, but over the course of the next 10-15 years as the demographics and electoral sand continues to shift under their feet.
From the AP:
Lowering air pollution in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley would save more lives annually than ending all motor vehicle fatalities in the two regions, according to a new study. The study, which examined the costs of air pollution in two areas with the worst levels in the country, also said meeting federal ozone and fine particulate standards could save $28 billion annually in health care costs, school absences, missed work and lost income potential from premature deaths.
From the NYT
Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression. Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia’s inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm.
Now, there were signs that this was the case from the very beginning (or, at the very least, information that belied the characterization of the situation as unambiguous Russian agression). Unfortunately, a lot of people, particularly American politicians, were more interested in shoe-horning this situation into a Cold War narrative.
Meanwhile, opposition forces are rallying in Tblisi.
Ok, so I never jumped on the whole "hate Palin" train. Still, I was kind of floored by this one. I was a little bit surprised to see it getting this play on Fox--normally it's the type of thing they'd dismiss as propaganda of the liberal media. But perhaps they, along with everyone else connected with the conservative movement, are just looking for someone to blame right now.
For balance you can see her response here.
Also, the story about Rahm Eman, Obama's new chief of staff, is true. Apparently a pollster pissed him off once so he mailed a stinking rotting fish to the guy.
Not just Missouri for President--it's the three outstanding Senate seats. Georgia is going to a runoff which state law requires when no candidate gets over 50%--right now the Republican Champliss is leading but barely below 50%). Minnesota is going to a recount which is required when it's less than .5% difference--right now Coleman leads Franken (of SNL/Air America fame) by only several hundred votes. And Alaska is still counting thousands of absentee votes in a race where Republican Ted Stevens is winning despite being convicted of felony bribery charges. If he wins it is expected that the Senate will expel him, paving the way for a special election which Palin may run in.
So the ground forces will gear up for Georgia, the lawyers will descend to litigate Minnesota and everyone will get ready for a recount, revote and rerun of the election in Alasaka.
First: Given the calling of both PA and OH for Obama, McCain has no viable path. Obama will win.
About as expected so far with a big exception. I'd expected a decently quick call on Virgina with Ohio being the big tossup. Instead Ohio got a quick call for Obama and Virginia is very tight (Obama behind in early returns but taking a small lead as Northern VA returns trickled in).
Also: Bradley Effect? Nowhere to be found so far. Perhaps it will come up in explanations for VA if that turns out to be very close in the end (polls had been showing him up by mid single digits) but I suspect there will be other reasons to be found.
On my predictions--I had predicted that Obama would win all of the safe states for him plus NM, NV, OH, CO, VA, NC, MO and ND. North Dakota was going on a limb and was wrong, OH was right. The rest are up in the air. FL and IN I had predicted for McCain and they still could very well go for Obama.
